The Winds of Change: Navigating the Future (17 July 2002)

There is an old maxim that says 'if you do not know which port you are heading for any sail set will do'. Navigating a future in uncharted territory can leave some skippers all at sea. So what do experienced captains do when they lose sight of the shore?

In the words of the insightful 'Ratty' in Kenneth Grahame's 'Wind in the Willows': "There is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats." A summer's day sail in pleasant conditions is every fair weather sailor's ideal way to spend an afternoon. The sun, the sea and being driven along by the waves provides a real sense of freedom. Travelling with no destination under the power of the prevailing wind is a joy. For many skippers the weekend sail is a pleasurable escape from the working week.

But to skipper a yacht, expertly and safely, requires a unique combination of skills. These particular skills are just as essential during our working week as they are in our weekend sail. In our organisations we seek to navigate the best course, often in variable winds. The experienced skipper ensures smooth sailing by anticipating the changing conditions. Using a parallel with sailing in a competitive yacht race, we can see what captaining an organisation is actually all about.

In our metaphorical yacht race we find our chosen fleet generally consists of boats of the same class. While all of the boats position for advantage on the starting line together, they quickly separate out after the gun. Although we may get a good start, it is often only when we are already racing that we ask the question: "What is our race strategy?" In the absence of a plan, following the leaders always seems a good approach. But while the boats may be similar, they are not identical. Each has different strengths. Just keeping up with the rest of the fleet as it rounds the first mark is sometimes all we can do.

Then in the confusion of the race we do not notice when the fleet leaders switch to a different tack - so we get left behind. A strategy that is simple proves simply ineffective. We find that by being reliant on others we have been sailing along with no sense of the correct course. Having lost sight of the next mark we are unsure how to navigate to it. Our race scenario has quickly changed and so must our strategy. We realise that to compete successfully it may sometimes be necessary to sail our own race.

So first we check our speed and the prevailing wind direction. We have not been keeping an eye on the compass. We discover that the wind has swung to the south and by keeping the same tack we have gone off course. It was a wind shift that was forecast, but we ignored the predictions that others took note of. To add to our dilemma the forecast is for harsher (economic) weather and some rough sailing ahead. Now there is also the safety of the crew and the vessel to consider. While pre-planning would have been good, we are now all at sea.

So how do we get back on course? One option is to head up into the wind and luff, pausing for a moment to get our bearings and plot a new course. To do this we must determine our present position. While this is useful, it is only of use if we know where we are relative to where we want to be. This involves knowing where we are heading to and how this relates to the whole of the race. We also need to find the next mark.

Often a keen eye spots a marker buoy - but do we know if it is the right one? By taking this obvious shortcut we could miss the correct mark (intentionally or unintentionally) and we will have to go back to round it if we are to finish the race without disqualification. Getting that first compass bearing is very important. Once we know where we are heading we can then assess how we will get there. A straight line is a good strategy. However, the prevailing wind is not always behind us and is often head on. So we must choose an appropriate tack and find an optimal sail set if we are to point as close as possible to our true compass bearing.

Now that we are moving again in the right direction we need to scan our environment and determine the navigation hazards that lie ahead. There is more to skilful navigation than blindly following our compass bearing, especially when sailing in uncharted waters. There is no point plotting a course that leads us inside a reef with no way out or into a wind shadow with no wind. So this is probably a good time to look at the available charts. Having determined our course we can begin to compete on an even keel.

Next we must ask ourselves: Do we have the necessary equipment? Are we still seaworthy? Do we have the right sails? Are all the winches in operating condition? An inventory is required to determine if our vessel is ship-shape. Perhaps some refurbishments are required if we are serious about being competitive.

And then there is the crew. Being an able skipper is no use if you have to cover each of the crew stations yourself. You cannot steer, trim a foresail, set a spinnaker and winch an uphaul all at the same time. If you have to leave the helm to supervise each job you place the outcome of the race (and perhaps even the vessel) at risk. Perhaps your crew may need some specialised training in your boat's rig. Without knowing, the only real benefit you are making of their sailing experience is as ballast.

So with the sails set, a course plotted, the crew ready and all the equipment fully operational you are off, with the sails close hauled and doing a good rate of knots. Fairly soon the rest of the fleet comes into view. As you slowly work your way through the flotilla of less organized craft, it eventually becomes clear that the race leader will be between you and one other boat. Beam to beam, on the same tack, you are eventually both out in front of the fleet. You watch them and they watch you. Each manoeuvre is countered by a covering move and a tacking duel results. It is at this point you are thankful for the time spent doing the refurbishments and training the crew.

But you are in second place and in the wind shadow of the other yacht. You cannot overtake, but you must if you are to bother competing at all. They have you covered and have the advantage. Tactics enter your strategy as you begin to look for the chance to make your move and take the lead. And then the moment comes. You see a wind shift far to port. A decision is required, you confer with your tactician, and backing your own judgment and the confidence you have in your crew (and they in you), you decide to tack. Your competitor does not see what you see, and decides to hold their course. Now on a different tack, you are sailing out on your own, but still with the mark clearly in sight.

Staying on the new course you pick up the wind shift as expected and this takes you into the lead. At last there comes the moment, with practised precision, to go about, turning to head directly for the final buoy. As you approach the mark your competitor has returned to match you on the same course and is way behind. With clean air, your vessel has gained the necessary speed and you round the mark well in front.

Now on the downwind run back to the clubhouse, with the spinnaker up and a solid sail set - you can cruise along (perhaps even open a drink) and enjoy the view. It is at this moment you remember why you were racing to begin with. There may be other ways to enjoy the water. You can paddle a kayak or loan the money for a huge powerboat. But then there is something about competing in a fleet of your own class - after all even a serious race is still meant to be fun.

In managing the winds of change in our organisations we need to determine our corporate focus, assess the environment and plan for the economic forecast ahead. We must identify our resources and capabilities, select our competitive market and evaluate alternative courses of action before setting our strategic direction. Once positioned within the market we must select and train our people, design efficient processes and maintain and upgrade our equipment to remain competitive. Using enhanced leadership decision-making skills and teamwork we gain an advantage. By closely monitoring our competitors we know when we have to put on the pressure and when to relax. All these dynamics come into play in planning our overall business strategy.

Our yacht race illustrates how an effective skipper brings all these elements together. When these processes are linked in order, with the appropriate tools and information, organisations achieve Strategic ExcellenceTM. It is a process to be used when we want to do more than just go for a pleasure cruise. Strategic planning is for those wanting to sail further on the same tack. A strategic management process is for those wanting to sail a whole race.

But why set sail at all? Why begin a journey other than for the pleasure? There are many different races and many voyages to sail. You may be in it for the prize money, for that sense of being part of the crew, to beat other captains or simply because you enjoy being out on the water. Those seeking more than the occasional sail around the bay often depart from the safety of the shore to discover new lands. Perhaps this is just your way of getting to the next port.

Whatever the reason, the joys of sailing are many. But if you are all at sea, with no sight of land and are feeling a little uneasy, perhaps it is time to take stock and determine whether you are in fact on course - before the rough weather arrives. To ensure you are sailing the race you want to be sailing it may be necessary to also embark on a voyage of discovery.

William Varey, Executive Director,
Forsyth Consulting Group
www.fcg.com.au

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